Every winter, millions of waterbirds arrive in the European Union — and in early 2026, they will be counted as part of the International Waterbird Census (IWC). They come from as far as the Arctic tundra, Siberian taiga, and Central Asia, seeking ice-free waters, wetlands, estuaries, and coastal lagoons. Their journeys connect continents and their numbers tell a powerful story about the health of Europe’s wetlands.

The Trends of wintering waterbirds in the European Union: 2025 update, based on data from the IWC, offers one of the clearest pictures yet of how these species are faring. It is a story of progress and pressure, of conservation success alongside worrying declines, and of rapid change driven by human activities.

The European Union remains a critical wintering area for numerous waterbird species, many of
which breed outside the EU. Wintering populations are indicators of long-term population health and the effectiveness of conservation policies. Monitoring these populations is essential for fulfilling obligations under the EU Birds Directive, the Ramsar Convention, and the African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbird Agreement.

At the heart of this monitoring effort is the IWC, coordinated since 1967 and powered by thousands of scientists and volunteers. As the IWC approaches its 60th anniversary, this unparalleled dataset allows us not only to track change but to understand it.

The 2025 update focuses on 33 key species, grouped by their status under the EU Birds Directive. Each group tells a different story.

Annex I: Conservation works — but not for all
Annex I wintering waterbirds show a clear long-term increase across the EU. Since 1980, their combined population index has risen significantly, with a 2% annual increase over the last decade. The species in this group include birds like the Greater Flamingo, Great White Egret, and Bar-Tailed Godwit. These trends strongly suggest that site protection, wetland restoration, and legal safeguards under the Birds Directive are delivering results.

However, one species stands apart: Bewick’s Swan. It remains the only Annex I species in long-term decline.

Annex II: The troubling state of huntable species
The picture is far more concerning for Annex II species, many of which are huntable whose populations remain well below historic levels. Several familiar waterbirds are declining both in the long and short term including the Mallard, Tufted Duck, Common Moorhen, Eurasian Coot.

Not all trends are negative though. Common Pochard and Common Goldeneye show partial recovery after steep declines. Eurasian Wigeon, a priority species for adaptive harvest management, has rebounded in the last decade. Yet even these recoveries remain fragile and uneven across regions.

Annex III: Non-Listed species: stable — until they’re not
Species not listed in the Birds Directive annexes often escape policy attention. But their trends matter. Overall, non-listed species show a slight long-term increase. However, half declined in the last decade. Ruddy Turnstone and Dunlin, both now globally Near Threatened, show worrying recent declines in parts of Europe. Little Grebe and Black-necked Grebe are decreasing in southern and western regions. These species act as early warning indicators, signalling broader wetland stress before dramatic collapses occur.

Wintering ranges are shifting

Across almost all species groups, one pattern is unmistakable: wintering ranges are shifting. Climate change is driving birds northward and eastward. Cold winters no longer force birds into traditional strongholds in western Europe, while new areas — especially around the Baltic and Black Seas — are becoming increasingly important. This has major implications. National declines may reflect redistribution rather than true population loss. Protected area networks may no longer align with where birds actually winter. Harvest management based on outdated assumptions risks becoming unsustainable.

Looking ahead

Behind every data point stands a person. The International Waterbird Census depends on thousands of volunteer counters, national coordinators and scientists, decades of shared commitment to wetlands. Their work makes it possible to see trends early, respond intelligently, and hold ourselves accountable to nature.

Sixty years of winter counts are telling us a clear story. Protection works when it is strong and targeted. Overuse and habitat loss still take a heavy toll. Climate change is rewriting the map faster than policy can follow. The challenge for Europe is no longer whether we can conserve waterbirds but whether we can adapt fast enough to ensure that wetlands remain safe havens in a rapidly changing world.

Because every wintering bird is not just a visitor — it is a measure of our shared future.